Saturday, May 16, 2009

Survivor Tocantins || Pre-finale specs

I hate having two Survivor related posts back to back, but I figure, since the finale is tomorrow, I would lay out my speculations before I bust out my orange plaid outfit, red buffs, ‘Pao flags, and Paper Planes audios (or White’n’Nerdy, depending on what goes down) for the event that is 8 PM on Sunday night. This week’s episode was phenomenal – although causing me to add another person to the hate pile – and I’d hope the finale can only follow suit.

I will probably post my recap of this past episode after the finale, taking things in very slow doses as I have finals this week. Naturally, the finale and reunion recap will follow the past episode, as will a final ranking of the cast of Tocantins. Which will be a much harder cast to rank compared to Gabon, where only six people were tolerable. Fact.

Let's get to my current ranking of the final four.

Actually, in case I forget to recap this past episode, let me just state a few of my opinions on Coach.

He definitely gets a decent ranking on my list of "most disappointing players on a reality tv show", but he had a good run. Aside from the reward, where he was really just all over JT's ass instead of really doing anything, in a few of the past challenges, he's been doing rather well. Am I sad to see him go? Yes, and no. Coach is funny. Coach is really fucking funny. Erinn doesn't have a sense of humor. I'll take a part time Coach, part time douchebag over a stupid, undeserving bitch who doesn't know how to laugh at things that are funny. At the same time, I really tried feeling bad for Coach after Erinn's cuntiness. I did. Once he whipped out that poem, I was just hoping Jeff could make up for that fake double elimination with the other most obnoxious contestants of the season and just get rid of both Erinn and Coach. Sympathy lost. All in all, he's obnoxious, yes. He's kindof a douche, yes. He's also kindof hilarious, yes. Is he as hilariously obnoxious as Rocky from Fiji? Hell no. Is he a sense making kind of asshole like Corinne from Gabon? Hell no. At the same time, is he nearly as unbearable as Jean Robert from China? Hell no. Would I hang out with him in real life? In the day time, probably. Would I want to live in an appartment with him? Probably not. Is he cooler than Tyson? Definitely not. Does he deserve some sort of award for most dramatic contestant on a reality show? Most definitely.

Now to the final four.

If the group remains stupid, JT's got this in the bag. Also, do realize that the last two challenges are always the same type of challenge. JT has both of them, and it all depends on a few people from the jury on whether or not he wins. As for voting for Erinn, yes, he loses a vote, but he gains one from Coach. According to the Insider videos, JT voted for Erinn as a security vote - to secure Coach's vote. It's smart in a way, but I couldn't really see Coach voting for anyone else to begin with. Is the bromance over? I don't think so.

Looking back at the challenge, Stephen was very smart to vote out Coach. First, they've already planned this. Second, he was amazing in the past two challenges. Let's say, Coach got to the final three. The final immunity challenge is all concentration or balance (or both). With the exception of whatever shit was Gabon's last, it's always the same. Coach and JT are the only ones who are any good at either task - Stephen's too clumsy, Taj has the wrong kind of body, and Erinn just sucks. Having both JT and Coach there screams "STEPHEN GETS THIRD PLACE" way too loudly, unless JT wins. Stephen probably didn't want to risk that. In the end, if he somehow wins, it's smarter for him to take Taj rather than JT, but it could cost him another vote. And if he takes Taj, it could possibly cost him the game (depending on whether or not JT plans on forgiving him at the time).

I didn't like her attitude this week, but whatever. She has too much money already. Bottom line. She shouldn't win - her gameplay overall isn't that strong, she has enough money, and she blew off all but one of her alliances. Again, unless JT is on the jury and decides not to forgive his bromance partner, Taj has no chance at winning this game, and that's well deserved, no matter how much I love her.

COOZE. That's really all I can say. I will give her some sort of credit - she wouldn't have said anything if Coach just kept the details to a very bare minimum. But I don't give a shit how long she's lived with him. It's fucking rude to call him out like that when he probably wasn't trying to steal anyone's thunder. Coach is kind of a douche, but we've seen several times that he has a heart. Only a heartless fuck would've done what she assumed he'd do. He's not that. It was a totally classless, bitchy thing for her to say out of confessional. Fact. She won't get a vote at all because all the 'Biras hate her and all the 'Paos will vote for each other (JT doesn't like Erinn enough, I don't think). It'd be way too boring to take her to the final two. Ugh. Stupid princess. Also, get your nicknames straight - Coach wasn't the dragon, therefore he was not slayed. The dragon was slayed a long time ago, you stupid bitch. I guess this is what happens when I can't yell at Sierra for being stupid, but goddamn.

Jury questions are a lot of fun. Let's assume them! (well, at least for the current jury members)

Erinn: "Why do you deserve to win more than the person next to you?"
JT: see Erinn, though he will probably add some compliments to JT along the way
Stephen: see Erinn
Taj: "Why'd you turn on the Exile Alliance?"

Erinn: cut her down, Alex vs Cassandra style for not deserving to be there
JT: Not sure.
Stephen: see JT
Taj: something involving the money and whether or not she needs/deserves it. probably something about JT and Stephen carrying her

Erinn: point out all her flaws and show how much she hates her
JT: "Did you believe me when I called out Coach and Debbie?"
Stephen: not sure
Taj: "Why should you get the money when you have so much already?"

not sure on any of Debbie's questions, but she will probably be the Shii Ann, and say that no one should be bitter and people in glass houses should not throw stones. Therefore, Debbie will be awesome.

Erinn: rip her a new one, possibly either Alex vs Cassandra style or Corinne vs Sugar style, depending on how awesome he decides to be (he'd be cooler with the former)
JT: Praise him, but ask "how tight was our trust?" or something stupid like that. (in which JT will say he can still take Coach's word to the bank or something like that)
Stephen: Rip him a new one, Lex vs Rob style
Taj: sing Beautiful Soul to her? (FUCK, I WISH)

So, let's look at the voting options.

Scenario #1: If JT does not win the next challenge, it would make the most sense to get rid of him, for obvious reasons. If Erinn ends up winning the last challenge, after JT's been eliminated, she'll take Taj to the final two because Taj is a mama and she cares, where as Stephen's only been using Erinn to play the game. In that case, the finale becomes the worst finale of my life, but the votes will go as so...

Taj (Exile alliance hollah)
Taj (hates Erinn)
Taj (hates Erinn and Taj was sweet and motherly to her)
Taj (loves Taj, no comment on Erinn)
Taj (hates Erinn, wants Taj and her ~beautiful soul~)
Taj ('Paos to the end)
Taj ('Paos to the end)

Erinn = fail. Naturally. Taj gets more money than she needs or deserves, considering her gameplay (mock turtleneck, remember?).

Scenario #2: If Stephen wins the final challenge, JT's out at four, Taj at three, and he took Erinn to the final two, it'd be like this.

Stephen (never seemed to care about Erinn, spooning with Stephen might seal the deal)
Stephen (hates Erinn, might respect Stephen for his move against him)
Stephen (hates Erinn)
Stephen (loves Stephen, no comment on Erinn)
Stephen (hates Erinn, despite being backstabbed by the ~white wizard~)
Stephen ('Paos to the end, doesn't care for Erinn, Stephen was his next pick for the win, will probably be over elimination as it would make sense considering his level of threatening, bromance lives on)
Stephen ('Paos to the end, they've been together forever)

Again, Erinn = fail. Stephen joins Todd Herzog in being one of the best and most deserving winners ever.

Scenario #3: If JT takes Erinn to the final two, which he won't, he will win. Obviously. I guess I'll show the breakdown anyway.

JT (never seemed to care about Erinn, pretty much infatuated with JT)
JT (hates Erinn, JT's lesser of two evils)
JT (hates Erinn)
JT (loves JT, no comment on Erinn)
JT (hates Erinn, also infatuated with JT)
JT ('Paos to the end)
JT ('Paos to the end, bromance lives on)

Told you. Erinn = still fail.

Scenario #4: Also, it'd be almost the same thing if JT took Taj to the final two.

JT (pretty much infatuated with JT, backstabbed by Taj regarding exile alliance)
JT (never had an opinion on Taj. probably respects JT more)
JT (will realize Taj doesn't need the money as much as JT does)
JT (loves JT, probably thinks Taj doesn't need money as much as JT does)
JT (depsite Taj's beautiful soul, JT's the one Coach wants to chase. plus, JT never wrote Coach's name down)
Taj (JT tried to vote her out)
JT ('Paos to the end, bromance lives on, JT's played the better game in the long run)

6-1, JT wins. It's been a while since we've had a 6-1 vote.

If Erinn is out at four, or at three, and Stephen takes Taj, it could go two different ways.

Scenario #5: If Erinn's out at three, JT at four, it'll probably go as such.

Stephen (probably respects Stephen more than Taj)
Taj (Taj was sweet and motherly to her, Stephen voted her out)
Stephen (although she loves Taj, she will respect Stephen's gameplay more. also, she was planning on taking him to the final three, not Taj)
Taj (Still bitter about being backstabbed by ~the white wizard~, wants Taj and her ~beautiful soul~)
Stephen ('Paos to the end, will probably be over elimination as it would make sense considering his level of threatening, bromance lives on)
Taj (she always seemed closer to Taj)

Brendan's the wild card here. I can't tell which way he'll go. It depends on whether or not he wants to focus on gameplay or relationships.

Scenario #6: If Stephen takes Taj to the final when JT's out at three, the votes would probably be...

Stephen (probably respects Stephen more than Taj)
Taj (Taj was sweet and motherly to her, Stephen voted her out)
Stephen (although she loves Taj, she will respect Stephen's gameplay more. also, she was planning on taking him to the final three, not Taj)
Taj (Still bitter about being backstabbed by ~the white wizard~, wants Taj and her ~beautiful soul~)
Taj (she always seemed closer to Taj)
Taj ? ('Paos to the end, will probably feel backstabbed that Stephen did not take him to the final two)

Again, Brendan's a wild card, but it wouldn't matter at that point. If JT votes Taj, like I'd assume, Taj wins. It would be Romber all over again without the proposal, and I'm sure people are not going to be satisfied, despite how lovable Taj is (again, she doesn't need the money when she has a studmuffin husband like Eddie George, who rakes in money like autumn never had a tomorrow).

Scenario #7: Now, for what I'm hoping will happen, as well as what I think would be more fun/interesting. If JT wins one challenge, he'll win the other because the other three contestants aren't good enough to win the last. Fact. Judging how physical the final four challenge is, JT has it. So my assumption is Erinn will be out at four, Taj at three. Either way, the votes will probably be as followed...

JT (never seemed close with Stephen, pretty much infatuated with JT)
Stephen (loves both, probably just wants to be different. this is Tyson, after all.)
JT (she said she'd give final immunity to JT. Not Stephen. She wants JT to win)
JT (backstabbed by the ~white wizard~. also infatuated with JT)
Stephen (he didn't vote her out when Coach went, JT did)
Stephen ('Paos to the end, They've been together longer)

Ultimately, I think JT will take it because Stephen is such a strong player. Many of the strong players falter at the final tribal council. Boston Rob, Amanda (twice!), Sugar... It's a common thread. JT is also a fabulous schmoozer, and could easily pull a Todd Herzog and win strictly during tribal. If they go to the final two, and this happens as expected, Stephen's almost better off proposing to JT at the finale show in New York before Jeff announces the votes. Hey, it worked for Rob Mariano. Why the hell not? You know, Stephen can sport a cute little "I ♥ JT" shirt in orange plaid. It'd be absolutely adorable, just like Romber!

(Hahahaha, I'm kidding, boys! It'd be a smart idea, but I'm just playing.)

As for the actual votes, Tyson's a wild card, but Sierra is ultimately the swing vote. For some reason, it seemed as if Sierra was always trying to get JT's attention. Maybe she's infatuated too, I don't know. But she was sad JT took her out of the reward challenge. She wanted JT to believe her in the whole Debbie and Coach deal. All JT has to do is look into her puffy eyes and tell her he believed her. And JT wins.

No matter what, the only ones deserving to win this are the boys, and no matter which one wins, the winner will be one of my favorites ever. JT has won me over with his personality, and I fell in fangirl love. At the same time, he's played probably the best social game I've ever seen, and he's taken advantage of everyone's stupidity extremely well. On the flip side, Stephen has been a fabulous strategist, much better than the past few we've had, and I love him for it. So no matter what, I'm going to love the winner, as long as it's one of the boys (I'll love Taj, but she won't be ranked any higher than Danni from Guatemala, and I don't think Danni's ranked that high. Erinn'll probably be toward the bottom as she's contributed pretty much nothing to society, but do note that I haven't seen all of Marqueqas or Thailand.).

Last bit in order is fan favorite. It's probably gonna be between Taj, Brendan, and JT, JT winning it (second consecutive winner winning fan favorite much? possibly). I split my votes between JT, Tyson, and Stephen. JT's my favorite, so he got 10 of my twenty votes. I was gonna give Tyson my other ten because he's awesome and he deserves fan favorite (though he won't get it because he's an "asshole". Even though he's not at all), but I felt bad because Stephen played a better game over all, so I split my other ten votes evenly between Stephen and Tyson. Sorry, Tyson! I still love you.

Overall, I'm very excited for the finale. Hopefully, it won't disappoint. Actually, I'm more excited for the reunion, and hopefully, that won't disappoint either. Considering how Tyson, JT, and Stephen are all in this cast, I'm sure they'll all rock the reunion.


  1. i don't think erinn consused the nicknames. i think it was just some kind of word play. because coach was the dragonslayer and he got voted off he became "dragonslayed". at least that's how i saw it.
    i'm not really rooting for anyone in this season. i only liked tyson but he was voted off way too early. =(

  2. Ahahaha, yes, I want a JTephen proposal at final tribal. So hard. That would make my life. :D But I'm super curious about Jamie & the cows, too. For serious.

    I'm super excited for tomorrow night. Eeeeeeee. Hopefully it goes as we wish it to and Erinn will go first, then Taj & it will leave our two boyyyys. Yessss. They totally both deserve it. They do. Ahhh, they're so my favorite bromance in such a long time, Survivor-wise, at least (because my God, I loved Dale & Richard on Top Chef - "You have gorgeous nipples, man." - BEST REUNION EVER). I'm really stoked for the reunion, too, though. Super excited.